First poll in a month, it’s a solid one for James Talarico.
Rep. James Talarico
The latest survey of the U.S. Senate race from Texas Public Opinion Research shows Democrat James Talarico leading Republican Ken Paxton, 45% to 40%, marking the Austin state representative’s largest lead in any public poll taken during the general election period.
Since Paxton locked up the GOP nomination in late May, polling of the contest has found a neck-and-neck race with neither candidate able to break 50%. But TPOR’s poll found Talarico leading among voters who do not have a college degree — a group that has consistently favored Republicans in Texas and across the country — and dominating among independents, less than a quarter of whom said they planned to vote for Paxton. The attorney general also had weaker Republican support than in other recent surveys, with nearly one in five GOP voters saying they were undecided or would vote for Talarico.
TPOR labels itself as a nonpartisan public opinion research group. It is directed by Democratic strategist Luke Warford.
The group surveyed 1,048 likely voters between July 15 and July 17, and has a margin of error of +/- 3.4 percentage points. Of those poll respondents, 53% voted for Donald Trump and 42% voted for Kamala Harris in 2024, making the sample only slightly bluer than the 2024 electorate, which favored Trump by a 14-point margin in Texas. Trump carried Texas by 5.6 percentage points in 2020, two years after the last midterm held during his presidency.
TPOR’s previous poll, fielded just after the May 26 runoff in which Paxton defeated Sen. John Cornyn, found Talarico leading 47% to 44%.
[…]
Paxton’s 40% vote share is the lowest he has received in a public poll post-runoff. Other surveys have found Republicans were consolidating behind him. But the TPOR poll had Talarico winning 7% of self-described Republicans, and an additional 12% remained undecided. Meanwhile, only 1% of self-identified Democrats indicated they would vote for Paxton, and 6% were undecided.
For comparison, a New York Times/Siena poll of the Texas contest fielded in June, which found the overall result tied at 47%, found Talarico winning 5% of Republicans and only 4% unsure.
Perhaps the biggest outlier was Talarico’s lead among non-college-educated voters, who favored the Democrat by nine percentage points — 45% to 36%. He led by 1 percentage point among those with at least a bachelor’s degree.
[…]
Other results hewed closer to recent polling of the race. The TPOR poll found Talarico leading heavily among Black and Latino voters, while Paxton maintained a strong lead with white voters. Black voters broke 71% for Talarico and 8% for Paxton, while Latinos preferred Talarico by a 66% to 20% margin.
Paxton led among white voters, 53% to 33%.
Talarico’s polling lead owes to his strength with independents and non-college educated voters. The poll found Talarico garnering 43% of independents to Paxton’s 23%; 29% remain undecided. Among self-described moderates, Talarico’s lead is even more pronounced, with the Democrat ahead 54% to 20%.
The poll found that 14% of voters of all political stripes remain unsure about their pick. Among undecided voters, there is evidence Paxton has more room to grow: 19% of that bloc said they leaned toward the Republican, compared to 10% who leaned toward Talarico. Two-thirds reported being truly on the fence.
Elsewhere on the ballot, the TPOR poll finds Republicans leading in the contests for governor and attorney general — though both are also close.
In the governor’s race, incumbent Republican Greg Abbott was leading Democratic state Rep. Gina Hinojosa of Austin by a 3-point margin, 45% to 42%. And in the open race to succeed Paxton as attorney general, Republican state Sen. Mayes Middleton of Galveston was up 39% to 38% over Democratic state Sen. Nathan Johnson of Dallas, well within the margin of error.
This is the third TPOR poll of the Senate race since March. Both showed Talarico leading, with him up 47-44 over Paxton post-GOP runoff as noted above, and up 46-41 in April. TPOR seems to be the most favorable pollster to Talarico, which may indicate a house effect or may just be a more consistent sample. The lead Talarico has among Latino voters – that 66-20 spread is dominant, probably the best showing he’s had so far – plus the lead he has among independents, are the strongest indicators that he’s in a position to win. You always have to be extra careful when dealing with subsamples, but TPOR does have bigger overall samples to begin with than many pollsters (1048 in this poll), so the subgroups aren’t as small. If these are indicative numbers, you have to like Talarico’s chances, and you have to hope he has some coattails.
As always, though, this is one result and a snapshot in time. The next poll could be different in any number of ways. TPOR’s writeup is here, they have a link to their toplines but you have to ask for their crosstabs.
A few notes from the poll that caught my atention:
https://x.com/jaspscherer/status/2082077359264747965
Interesting tidbit on the ‘Undecided” voters. This tracks with my thoughts on unecideds or independent voters – they’re wildly different from us partisans and it makes a good case for how candidates need to communicate some basic facts a little louder.
https://x.com/jaspscherer/status/2082089115072213403
Never would have guessed the polling on college educated vs non-college voters. Could be a quirk in the polling, but maybe an indicator of how truly weird this election will be. I don’t think there’s anything I can point to that suggests Talarico is doing anything speciific to drive this wedge.
Interesting that Talarico has a 71% lead among Black voters, yet there is so much internet chatter that they don’t like him, and that he’s ignoring them.
I’m glad Talarico has a 5% lead, but it’s still downright embarrassing that someone as slimy as Paxton has a chance to win this.
If you honestly don’t know anything about Paxton’s long list of scandals, you are living under one ginormous rock.
Hope the Talarico campaign is overturning more rocks.
Flypusher, with the fragmented media market and reliance of younger voters and non-voters on information from social media, I anticipate a large number of potential voters have no clue of any scandal involving General Paxton. I spoke to a college educated activist recently who was unaware that the supposed drugs found in Mr. Salgado’s vehicle were just salt, for a homemade Gatorade for construction workers in the Houston heat. Somehow in her busy life the news report that testing found no drugs had not reached her.